Compute / Accelerator Chips

Here's how I'm framing the next two quarters, looking at this from the seat I sit in. The revenue curve has been a textbook compounding story — sequential growth of roughly 20% over the past three quarters, powered by the Blackwell ramp and demand that remains structurally supply-constrained. For 2026Q3 I'm modeling revenue around $95.5 billion, assuming a modest deceleration to ~17% QoQ as we lap the early Blackwell volume and work through the back half of H2 supply allocations. For 2026Q4 I'm at roughly $107 billion, leaning on the seasonal enterprise pull-through and continued sovereign adoption. Two key assumptions sit underneath that view. First, gross margin holds in the 74-75% band — Blackwell Ultra mix shifts, HBM cost pressure, and packaging yields are real, but we're offsetting with software attach and richer system configurations. Second, operating leverage continues: OpEx grows well below revenue, so operating margin drifts toward 65%. On the net income line, I want to flag that 2026Q2 included a non-recurring tax tailwind that flattered the print, so I'm normalizing net margin back to roughly 60% for the forecast quarters. The top risk in my mind is customer concentration. A handful of hyperscalers absorb a disproportionate share of every shipment, so any digestion pause or capex recalibration hits the trajectory fast. Geopolitics and export controls are the second-order watch item — every shift ripples through the forward book.