Analog Chips

Look, I'm not going to dress this up with fancy talk. The 2026Q1 print told us what we already suspected — the analog cycle is turning back in our favor, and our internal fabs are doing exactly what they're supposed to do: churning out gross margin when competitors get squeezed. For 2026Q2, I'm penciling in $4.68 billion with margins holding around 58%, building on the Q1 momentum but showing the typical seasonal softness we see between Q1 and Q2. Then 2026Q3 steps up to roughly $4.95 billion as industrial customers work through backlog and automotive content per vehicle keeps inching higher. Two key assumptions I'm baking in: first, that industrial demand recovery is real and sticky, not just a couple quarters of restocking noise — our distribution sell-through is telling me it's structural; second, that our 300mm fab footprint in Texas and Utah keeps delivering that cost advantage as utilization climbs back, which is why I'm confident holding gross margin near 58% rather than letting it slip like it did in 2025Q4. The top risk keeping me up? Geopolitics. One tariff twist or export-control surprise and the industrial channel gets skittish overnight. We saw how quickly customer sentiment shifts when macro nerves hit. That's why I keep preaching cycle armor — analog depth, internal manufacturing, and a customer base that's not chasing the next shiny object.