Semiconductor Test Equipment

Let me sit down and chat for a minute—I only speak up on forecasts when I genuinely have conviction behind them. First, my call on the next two quarters: revenue will trace a "lift-then-accelerate" curve. For 2026Q2, I estimate roughly RMB 1.58 billion, about 14.6% above the just-completed Q1. The core logic is a seasonal catch-up—Q1 had the Spring Festival holiday compressing equipment acceptance and revenue recognition, and once we're past the New Year, downstream OSATs and wafer fabs will get back to a normal production cadence. Per the usual pattern, the bulk of annual orders tend to be delivered and booked across Q2 and Q3. I have 2026Q3 at RMB 1.75 billion, another 10.8% sequentially, which lines up with the traditional peak season for semiconductor equipment. HBM, CIS, and advanced-packaging-related test demand stack up on top of rising Capex from key domestic customers, so I still see Q3 as the full-year high. On gross margin, I'm modeling it holding around 56%, consistent with the 53.9%–56.8% band we've printed over the last four quarters. Two key assumptions underpin that view: first, the product mix on testers and handlers keeps tilting upmarket—higher-mix high-end probe stations and SoC testers will prop up gross margin; second, R&D intensity stays at roughly 20% of revenue. That weighs on near-term profit, but it's the price of deepening our "diagnostics specialist" identity over the long run. So I haven't dared to pencil in the 30.8% net margin we hit in Q4 last cycle—26%–28% feels like a more disciplined glide path. On net income, I have Q2 at RMB 416 million, stepping up to RMB 490 million in Q3, with EPS of RMB 0.66 and RMB 0.78 respectively. Scale leverage combined with a richer mix of high-margin product shipments in Q3 should push net margin up another notch from Q2. The biggest risk I have to flag: geopolitics and export controls. The core components of our testers—high-precision probe cards, motion control modules, certain application-specific chips—still rely on overseas supply. Any escalation in controls that hits delivery timelines or costs will compress gross margin immediately. At the same time, Capex pacing from major domestic customers is cyclical—if the Q3 peak-season thesis gets pushed back into Q4, the whole curve shifts. These are the two variables I weigh carefully every time I run an operating forecast. To sum it up: I'm modeling a "moderate recovery plus peak-season delivery" script—revenue stepping up quarter by quarter, net margin grinding higher but steadily. I'm not going to get carried away and stack the deck; that's not how we run finance. Leaving a safety cushion in the model is the only way that feels right.