CMP Polishing Materials

Pull up a chair, I'll pour you an Americano, and let's talk. Looking at the data across these four quarters—revenue climbed from 907M to 1.02B, gross margin lifted from 49.6% to 54.9%, net margin edged up from 18.7% to 24.6%—this curve isn't an accident. It's CMP polishing pads grinding out one order at a time inside advanced process nodes. Here's my projection for the next two quarters, built on two key assumptions: First, domestic substitution of CMP polishing pads on both the memory and logic sides is still accelerating. Gross margin stepped up every single quarter over the past four, which tells me the mix is shifting toward higher-end products—not volume piled up through price wars. I'm assuming this structural shift doesn't suddenly reverse, so I'm holding gross margin in the 54%–55% range for 2026Q2 and Q3, not letting it fall back below 50%. Second, the qualification cycle for advanced node materials is long, but once it ramps, it's stepped, not pulsed. 2026Q1 revenue grew both YoY and QoQ. I'm modeling Q2 at another 3%–4% QoQ climb, then Q3 hitting semiconductor peak season and adding roughly 5% on top—so I'm landing at around 1.062B for Q2 and 1.115B for Q3. Net margin holds near 24% because the operating expense leverage from higher-end products keeps working through. The biggest risk—and I need to be straight with you—is the capex cadence at downstream fabs. We're a materials supplier; the moment a customer trims capex, our orders lag by one quarter. If advanced node capacity expansion disappoints in 2026, or if memory pricing collapses and pushes customers to delay qualifications, both of those numbers get revised down. On top of that, semiconductor material qualification is a quarter-level chess game—any single major customer shifting their pace can swing single-quarter revenue by more than 5%, and I can't pretend I don't see that. So these two numbers are built on a neutral assumption: qualification ramp proceeds on schedule, customer mix doesn't shift dramatically. In the bull case, Q3 can touch 1.15B; in the bear case, Q2 might stall just above 1B.