Let's chat about the rhythm over these next two quarters. Here's how I'm framing it.
Key assumptions first. One, I'm assuming the cadence of domestic substitution orders won't break—this is the underlying backdrop for the EDA track. The tool migration underway at domestic foundries and design houses is a long-cycle, relatively high-conviction direction. Two, I'm assuming seasonality in revenue recovers starting Q2—historically Q1 is always the soft quarter, and starting in Q2 license renewals and validation projects ramp back up, so revenue lifts off the Q1 trough. Three, R&D spend won't hit the brakes—analog full-flow toolchain, digital verification, advanced packaging—these are all "strategic national priority"–level marathons. Headcount, IP procurement, and tape-out validation are all eating into costs, and that will suppress margins in the near term.
So I'm modeling Q2 revenue at roughly RMB 315 million, a 20%+ QoQ improvement versus Q1's RMB 257 million, but still in the red, with net income around -RMB 17 million. Q3 climbs further to RMB 350 million and crosses back above breakeven, with net income of about +RMB 7 million. The basic logic: the -RMB 74 million Q1 loss included a meaningful chunk of one-time impacts from beginning-of-year bonus accruals and R&D capitalization milestones, which start to dilute out from Q2; meanwhile, the revenue recovery lifts gross margin back from 78.8% into the 82%–85% range.
The biggest risks sit in two places. First, if customer validation cycles extend, license revenue recognition gets pushed out, and the QoQ improvement in Q2 may fall short of expectations. Second, if R&D investment keeps expanding at the current pace, the OpEx base keeps stepping up, which raises the breakeven line and could push the Q3 return to profitability further out. This is a judgment on operating cadence, not investment advice.