Lithography Equipment

Sitting here with my espresso, I'll tell you — the cycle we're in feels durable, and I'm quietly proud of how the team is executing through it. For Q2, I'm modeling around €8.95B in revenue with continued gross margin expansion; the key assumption is that High-NA EUV shipments keep ramping on schedule, and that installed-base service revenue compounds as more NXE systems mature into their high-utilization years. Q2 historically has a small pull-forward before customers ease orders into summer, so I see net income stepping modestly to about €2.82B. For Q3, a softer print feels right — roughly €8.6B — reflecting normal seasonal digestion as customers burn through installations before the year-end push. Net income I model around €2.68B. Revenue trends slightly down quarter-on-quarter because we don't fight seasonality, and net income follows on roughly flat margins. Two core assumptions drive both quarters: (1) AI infrastructure capex stays constructive through the second half, sustaining demand for advanced logic and HBM memory; (2) gross margin keeps stepping up 50–100 basis points as High-NA mix improves and service revenue scales. The top risk remains geopolitical — tighter China export controls or new component-level restrictions would meaningfully shrink our addressable market. The second-order risk: a sharper inventory correction at large foundry customers if AI-economy ROI comes under pressure.