Pull up a chair, friend — let me walk you through what I see on the shop floor.
Two key assumptions underpin these numbers. First, AI accelerator demand keeps our leading-edge lines — N3 and the early N2 ramp — running at the kind of utilization that lets yields compound quarter after quarter. That's the engine behind another 40 to 50 basis points of gross margin expansion, from 66.2% into the high-60s. Second, mix continues shifting toward advanced packaging and high-performance compute, which carries structurally higher ASPs and lifts operating leverage further — you can see operating income outgrowing revenue in both projected quarters.
On revenue: I'm modeling roughly 4% sequential growth in Q2 as the typical seasonal digestion following a strong Q1, then reaccelerating to about 4.7% in Q3 as the next wave of smartphone and HPC ramps pull wafers through the fab. Net income grows a touch faster than revenue because the margin trajectory is still in our favor.
The top risk I'd flag is geopolitical — concentrated operations in Taiwan mean any disruption to shipping lanes, water supply, or cross-strait stability would hit us harder than any peer. Second-order risks include customer concentration at the hyperscalers and the usual FX swings on the TWD. None of this changes the operating thesis today, but it's the kind of thing that keeps a CFO humble.