Power IDM / MEMS

Honestly, looking at the numbers across the past four quarters, I had a pretty good sense of where things stood. Q4 profit got compressed mainly because of inventory write-downs and the year-end expense accruals hitting all at once; Q1 then jumped to 330 million in net profit, partly because stuff that had been pushed off from late last year finally got released, and partly because MOSFET shipments ramped hard across new-energy vehicles, solar PV, and energy storage. So for the next two quarters, I expect we'll settle into something relatively normalized—but a notch above where we were in the middle of 2025. Better than Q4, slightly softer than Q1: a smooth step-up curve. Let me lay out the key assumptions first. One, I'm still constructive on MOSFET as our core business. Our legacy IDM fabs running on 8-inch lines have been at full utilization, and order visibility for IGBT and superjunction MOSFET in automotive-grade, solar inverter, and industrial control channels looks solid. ASP is under pressure, but volume can carry the day. Two, I'm patiently nurturing the new MEMS sensor line. The new fab is still ramping in Q2 and Q3—revenue contribution will come through, but depreciation, amortization, and R&D spending will eat into profit and drag the gross margin down a bit. Three, some of Q1's earnings came with one-off tailwinds; Q2 will naturally revert to an operating margin around 9%. The biggest risks really come down to two things. First, if demand from consumer electronics suddenly weakens, MOSFET volumes and pricing get squeezed at the same time. Second, as the domestic substitution race keeps intensifying—everyone is sprinting on SiC localization—gross margin could get ripped open at any moment. So putting it together: for 2026 Q2 I'm estimating revenue of 2.915 billion with net profit of 250 million; Q3 tapers slightly to revenue of 2.885 billion and net profit of 232 million. Revenue ticks up sequentially—MOSFET holding the line, MEMS gradually adding volume. Net profit steps down from Q1's peak to a more sustainable plateau, as one-off factors get digested and investment in the new line starts showing up in the P&L. That's the operating view; how the market prices it is a separate matter. I've always had confidence in the resilience of our legacy assets.