Pour yourself a cup — I'll walk you through how I'm reading the etch trajectory.
First, the assumptions. I'm assuming HBM-driven DRAM and 3D NAND bit growth continues to translate into sustained wafer fab equipment pull-through, particularly in our high-aspect-ratio etch and ALD franchises where gate-all-around and backside power delivery architectures demand more steps per wafer. I'm holding gross margin in a tight 49.5–49.7% corridor — product mix shift toward leading-edge etch offsets the natural cost creep. China revenue I keep roughly at the recent cap-constrained level, assuming no incremental export-control escalation in the forecast window.
So revenue trends up, but at a more measured ~3% QoQ versus the 9% step we just saw. That Q1 surge, in my view, was catch-up from prior-quarter shipments slipping rather than a new run rate. Operating income should scale modestly with revenue given our relatively fixed cost structure, and net income follows the operating line — tax and other items stay near historical norms.
The top risk I'd flag is memory pricing. If DRAM or NAND ASPs soften meaningfully, customers throttle equipment orders before affecting bit demand — that's the canary I watch. Second-order risk is geopolitical: any tightening on advanced-node tools into China would compress the topline overnight.