Silicon Carbide (SiC)

Alright, here's how I'm reading the next two quarters from my seat at Wolfspeed. The four-quarter tape tells a clear story — revenue stepped down from ~$197M to ~$150M as we wound down older 150mm lines and shifted volume toward Mohawk Valley's 200mm footprint. I expect 2026Q2 to print around $138M, with the trough still close, then a modest bounce to ~$142M in 2026Q3 as 200mm wafer output from Mohawk Valley begins to contribute meaningfully. Two key assumptions drive this: first, the restructuring program keeps cutting overhead — severance, idle-capacity drag, and corporate bloat — which is why I see operating losses narrowing from roughly -$114M last quarter to about -$92M and then -$72M. Second, gross margin walks from -26.6% toward the high single-digit negatives as utilization climbs on 200mm tools where each wafer yields dramatically more die. SiC is the EV power-conversion substrate, and our cost-per-amp curve is what wins the decade. The top risk I'm watching like a hawk is Chinese SiC capacity flooding the market on price — if Beijing-backed entrants keep undercutting us, our path to positive gross margin slips and cash burn extends. Net income stays negative because interest expense on the convertible stack is real, but the trajectory is the right direction. This isn't investment counsel — just my honest read of the operating plan over coffee.